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Photo : Turkish Presidency/ AP
24 June 2022, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #236
IN FOCUS
By Ashwin Dhanabalan
Turkey and Saudi Arabia mending ties, what lies ahead?
Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Ankara
On 22 June, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Ankara and met with Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Prince Mohammed was welcomed with all-state honors and visit marked the end of the animosity between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Bilateral ties were disrupted between the two countries due to the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. However, the relations seem to be changing with Prince Mohammed’s visit and Turkey handing over Khashoggi’s case to Saudi Arabia in April.
US president Joe Biden is also scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia in July and will meet Prince Mohammed. However, this raised accusations of “betrayal,” as Biden had earlier agreed to de-classify an intelligence report that found prince Mohammed’s direct involvement in the murder of Khashoggi. This would cause him to step back from his vow to treat Saudi Arabia as a “pariah.”
Erdogan and Prince Mohammed fixing their issues: Three reasons why
First, consolidating regional influence. Turkey’s support to Qatar increased after Saudi Arabia and other countries blockaded relations with Ankara over its relations with Tehran. Additionally, the murder of Khashoggi in Ankara was an added contention between the two countries which severed political and economic ties between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. However, now both the countries want to play a more proactive role in the region by moving away from regional divisions and economic isolation. Saudi Arabia has been pushing to mend ties with Qatar and Turkey as it is concerned about Iran’s role within the region.
Second, US’ tilt toward Iran. With Saudi Arabia declining to increase crude oil production and the US trying to revive the 2015 JCPOA agreement, relations between the two have soured. The US pivot to the Indo-Pacific has raised concerns as it would shift Washington’s focus away from the Middle Eastern region leaving commitments to Saudi Arabia vulnerable. Following the increase in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the Washington and Riyadh relations have further strained.
Third, expanding economies. As Erdogan and Prince Mohammed turned frenemies, the two countries halted their economic ties, which had affected regional trade. Saudi Arabia had announced an unofficial embargo on Turkish exports, which had disrupted bilateral trade worth USD five billion. Bilateral investments were also directly affected as Turkey invested USD 660 million in Saudi Arabia, as Riyadh invested USD two million in Ankara. Thus, the two countries initiated mending ties to improve bilateral trade and investments.
A boon for Turkey’s economy and Erdogan’s political image
Saudi Arabia has been economically faring well as its foreign reserves are expected to climb upward, and its energy revenue is set to reach USD 400 billion. This indicates the possibility of Saudi Arabia investing in Turkey and allowing bilateral trade to return to normalcy. Erdogan also hopes that the mending of ties could encourage investments from Saudi Arabia and other gulf countries since Turkey has been facing an economic crisis. Improved relations would also help Erdogan get re-elected in the upcoming general elections in 2023.
References
Ruth Michaelson, “Saudi crown prince visits Turkey as relations thaw after Khashoggi murder,” The Guardian, 22 June 2022
Steven A Cook, “Why Turkey Is Resetting Relations With Saudi Arabia,” Council on Foreign Relations, 04 May 2022
“Explainer: Why Are Foes Turkey and Saudi Arabia Fixing Ties?,” Voice of America, 29 April 2022
War in Ukraine: Day 120
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy observed that the Russian forces had been carrying out attacks in eastern Donbas in a similar way it did in Mariupol. He said: “…they want to destroy the whole Donbas step by step. Entire. Lysychansk, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk - they aim to turn any city into Mariupol. Completely ruined.”
There were several attacks observed by the Ukraine armed forces in the Mykolaiv where three cruise missiles were launched and the force took down two. Ukraine also announced holding the first trial against a Russian soldier who has been charged with sexual assault on Ukrainian women during wartime. The charged soldier known as Mikhail Romanov is also accused of murdering a civilian on 9 March.
Zaporizhzhia region mayor, Dmytro Orlov reported that civilians and workers at the Enerhodar nuclear plant were being captured by Russian forces. He said: “Whereabouts of some unknown. The rest are in very difficult conditions: they are being tortured with electric shock, bullied physically and morally.”
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
Russia's defence ministry claimed that the Russian Navy handled the exit of Turkey’s cargo ship “Azov Concord.” TASS reported that it will be the first ship to exit from Mariupol and go towards Novorossiysk. The move comes after the discussion took place between Turkey and Russia on ensuring safe exit and navigation to the Black Sea for Turkey’s ships. After Azov, there are still five ships left in the Mariupol to be deported. Apart from this he also reported on supply humanitarian activities held in Donetsk and Lugansk regions, where 183 tonnes of aid were given to people. He also enlisted those involved in the aid activities which included, “ministries, federal services, and agencies, political parties, and non-governmental organizations.”
On 23 June, Russia’s National Defense Management Center chief, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev reported that without engaging with the Kyiv authorities, Russia had transferred or evacuated close to two million people including 300,000 children till now invasion began. He said: “Despite all the obstacles created by official Kyiv, 23,775 people, including 3,676 children, have been evacuated to the Russian Federation from dangerous areas of the Donbas republics and Ukraine in the past 24 hours.”
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 23 June, the EU leaders announced the recognition of Ukraine and Moldova as candidates for membership for the EU. Upon the announcement, the western Balkan states criticized the slow progress of their membership status at the EU. The Balkan states, Albania, and North Macedonia were previously given candidate status in 2004 and 2005, since then the progress has been slowed. The key reason is due to Bulgaria’s block where it demands to settle down the historical and language disputes to proceed to the accession to the EU. According to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: “I am deeply convinced that our decision that we have taken today strengthens us all.”
Germany and Denmark have issued an alert stating an “emergency” on the supply chain issues faced in importing gas. The alert was previously issued in March 2022 as “phase 1” alert and it needs to ensure the status does not shoot to “phase 3” where the government will be directly involved in cutting down gas to non-essential companies.
Denmark has announced its plans to send it frigate crew off 135 soldiers to take part in a NATO exercise as part of their deterrence activities in the North Atlantic. The exercise involved other countries such as Spain, France, the Netherlands, and Canada.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 23 June, ICRC head to Ukraine, Pascal Hundt, said that ICRC was ready to coordinate agreements on the civilian evacuation from Donbas combat zone. He also spoke on how the parties to the conflict must involve duly in the evacuation process and ensure a passage for people to exit the war zones. He said: “Since the beginning of May, ICRC teams have assisted over 900,000 vulnerable people with food, livelihood, and cash assistance as well as hygiene material.”
Nike, the US sportswear company has announced its exit from Russia. It has stopped its online sale and closed down its physical stores in Russia. The statement released said: “Our priority is to ensure we are fully supporting our employees while we responsibly scale down our operations over the coming months.”
References
“Today in Denmark: A roundup of the news on Friday,” The Local dk, 24 June 2022
“EU leaders grant Ukraine and Moldova candidate status,” Deutsche Welle, 23 June 2022
“Western Balkans determined on membership after EU talks,” Deutsche Welle, 23 June 2022
“Over two million people evacuated from Ukraine, Donbass to Russia — Defense Ministry,” TASS, 23 June 2022
“Russian Defense Ministry confirms Turkey’s Azov Concord left port of Mariupol,” TASS, 23 June 2022
“Over 183 tonnes of aid delivered to DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye region — Defense Ministry,” TASS, 23 June 2022
“ICRC ready to facilitate agreements on evacuation of civilians from Donbass combat zone,” TASS, 23 June 2022
“Nike latest brand to leave Russia permanently,” BBC, 23 June 2022
“Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 120 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 23 June 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan
THE UK
Lawyers investigate the failure of states in preventing Yazidi genocide of 2013
On 21 June, a group of prominent lawyers from the UK announced their collaboration as the Yazidi Justice Committee (YJC) to privately investigate the failure of states to prevent the genocide committed in Northern Iraq. The lawyers have been compiling evidence for the past two and a half years to reveal that some counties failed in their international obligations to stop the genocide against the Yazidis in early 2013. The YJC will likely name three countries in a report in early July. It would be one of the first cases in which nations would have to worry about legal action being taken against them for failing to stop a genocide, and it would shape the future of human rights accountability. Ten nations may be held legally liable for failing to prevent genocide under the UN's Genocide Convention, according to evidence evaluated by the YJC lawyers who are working pro bono. (Patrick Wintour, “UK lawyers gather evidence for action against countries over Yazidi genocide,” The Guardian, 21 June 2022)
TURKEY
Ankara prevents alleged attacks on Israel’s citizens ahead of Lapid's visit
On 23 June, the foreign minister of Israel, Yapir Lapid, appreciated Turkey for preventing and arresting five individuals from Iran suspected of planning attacks on Israel’s citizens in Ankara. Lapid met with the foreign minister of Turkey, Mevlut Cavusoglu, to mend their poor relations amid Ankara’s fervent support for Palestine. During investigations of the suspects’ lodgings in homes and hotels, police found two firearms and two silencers. Labid stated: “We’re not only talking about the murder of innocent Israeli tourists, but also a clear violation of Turkish sovereignty by Iranian terror. We are confident that Turkey knows how to respond to the Iranians on this matter.” (“Turkey foils alleged Iran plot to kill Israelis in Istanbul,” Al Jazeera, 23 June 2022)
REGIONAL
Western Balkans reiterate their desire to join EU
On 23 June, Western Balkan countries and the EU met in Brussels to discuss their membership in the union. North Macedonia and Albania are upset with Bulgaria for hindering the accession process with the EU. The president of North Macedonia, Stevo Pendarovski, deemed it “unacceptable” that Bulgaria had made it a requirement for the accession process that Skopje and Sofia debate matters of “shared history,” language, and identity. The EU leaders have stated that they would attempt to give “full and unequivocal commitment to the EU membership perspective of the Western Balkans.” (“Western Balkans determined on membership after EU talks,” Deutsche Welle, 23 June 2022)
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
US private equity investor set to takeover UK defense supplier
On 23 June, the aerospace manufacturing company Cobham was permitted to acquire a UK defense supplier called Ultra Electronics. Cobham, based in Bournemouth, England, was taken over by a US private equity investor, Advent, in 2019. Therefore the firm will be further controlling a significant supplier of nuclear submarine technologies. Under the terms of accession, Cobham will have to establish two “SecureCos” to host “sensitive capabilities.” The government will approve the articles of association for these firms, and it will have a seat on their boards. The government will also have “step-in rights,” which will enable it to seize control of the SecureCos for national security reasons. (Jasper Jolly, “Takeover of UK defence supplier Ultra Electronics set to be approved,” The Guardian, 23 June 2022)
Foundation laid for first modern vaccine plant in Africa by German firm
On 23 June, the pharmaceutical company BioVTech from Germany laid the foundation stone for its COVID-19 vaccine plant in Kigali, Rwanda. The ceremony was attended by the president of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, and other state leaders, in addition to representatives from the EU and the WHO. The 30,000 square meter factory in Kigali would initially have two modular vaccine production containers and have an estimated annual capacity of roughly 50 million vaccine doses. According to BioNTech, the firm will be able to grow production as needed by basing the factory on modular containers. The first shipment of containers is anticipated to reach Rwanda in the latter half of 2022, with the beginning of vaccine manufacturing following 12 to 18 months. The Rwandan facility will be the first mRNA vaccination production in Africa once it is operational. (Isac Mugabi, “BioNTech breaks ground on first mRNA vaccine plant in Africa,” Deutsche Welle, 23 June 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Putin calls BRICS countries to cooperate, amid sanctions on Russia
On 23 June, the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, in a virtual address to the BRICS summit hosted by China, called on the member countries to cooperate with him as he rerouted his trade. Putin also blamed the West for causing a global crisis. He claimed that Western countries were "using financial mechanisms" to "shunt their own failures in macroeconomic policy onto the whole world" in response to the sanctions. He further stated that the leadership of BRICS is needed now more than ever to chart a unified, constructive path toward the creation of a truly multipolar system of intergovernmental relations. (“Putin urges BRICS nations to cooperate with Russia,” Deutsche Welle, 23 June 2022